Four cities in the United States are going to suffer a fall in house prices due to the high interest rate caused by inflation, warned Goldam Sachs, a leader in securities and investment management.
San Jose and San Diego in California; Austin, in Texas; and Phoenix, in Arizona, will probably be the cities most affected by falls of more than 25%.
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Price declines in these cities will be similar to those experienced in 2008 when the country experienced a recession. During that time the value of houses fell 27%.
“This decline should be small enough to avoid a broad strain on mortgage credit, with a sharp increase in foreclosures across the country looking unlikely,” Goldam Sachs said in the document titled Getting worse before getting better.
According to the report, declines in “overheated housing markets in the Southwest and Pacific Coast,” particularly in the four cities mentioned, will present “a localized risk of greater default for mortgages originated in 2022 or the end of 2021”.
Austin alone is down 10.4% from its 2022 price peak, Forbes magazine has warned.
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This does not apply to the entire country, they clarified. The markets in the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest of the country will see “milder corrections”. In cities like Chicago and New York, prices are likely to drop slightly, while in others like Baltimore and Miami they could see slight increases.
Goldman predicts that in the rest of the national real estate market a drop in prices of 6% is reported in 2023. In the most affected sites, he estimates that there will not be a long-term recession like the one suffered in 2008since the value of homes is supposed to rise around 1% in 2024.
“Assuming that the economy remains on a soft landing path, avoiding a recession, and that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls back to 6.15% by the end of 2024, house price growth will likely pass from depreciation to a below-trend appreciation in 2024,” the bank explained.
A forecast from the financial services website Bankrate estimated that interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages will drop to 5.25% by the end of this year, this is equivalent to to 1.49 percentage points with respect to the current rate, and almost two points with respect to the maximum reached in 2022 (7.12%).
The last time the rate exceeded 7% was in April 2002, after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.